Political analysts believes BN will still govern

PKR suppoters during Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim visit to Marudi in December 2012. 

By ROBERT KENNETH

Despite internal crises in Barisan Nasional (BN) component parties in Sarawak and issues raised by the oppositions, political analysts still believed BN will win in Sarawak in the 13^th General election.

Nevertheless, they said hard campaigning is needed and no room for complacency.

Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas) senior lecturer Dr Jeniri Amir believed BN will still win the election and form the minority government in Putrajaya.

He believed that it was impossible for Pakatan Rakyat (PR) to form the next government because they will not win enough seats from Sabah and Sarawak to add up their seats in Peninsula Malaysia to form the next federal government.

“In Peninsula Malaysia BN will still win but difficult to get the two third majority and they will win even less seats compare to the number of seats they won in 2008 General election.

Pakatan Rakyat target is to win a minimum of 18 seats in Sabah and Sarawak but Jeniri  predicted that they will only win 12 seats at the most.

“Sabah and Sarawak will be the king maker and BN may lose five to seven seats in Sarawak,” he said.

He said MCA will be losing more seats because Chinese voters will not support Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak and BN.

“I am quite confident BN will still win the election because of the non-Chinese increasing support towards BN following Najib’s political transformation and also the goodies he announced for the rakyat lately,” he said.

On these problematic seats in Sarawak like Hulu Rejang, Mas Gading, Baram and Seratok, Jeniri said BN will need to work very hard in these seats.

He said BN leaders need to solve the candidacy problem immediately in order not to confuse the voters as well as maintaining the voters’ confidence towards BN.

“In Hulu Rejang PRS may lose the seat because whoever will be fielded between Datuk Billy Abit and Wilson Ugak Kumbong there will certainly be no cooperation among both parties,” he said.

The quarrel between both parties according to Dr Jeniri is only give the advantage to the opposition to wrest the seat.

Dr Jeniri predicted the opposition (PKR) will win in Hulu Rejang.

On Mas Gading seat, Dr Jeniri said the incumbent MP Datuk Dr Tiki Lafe should give way to SDDP to pick the new candidate for the seat.

He said if Dr Tiki is re-nominated to defend the seat it will definitely create bad precedent and not good for BN as the seat belongs to SPDP and the latter has been sacked from the party.

Jeniri opined that it will be easy for BN to retain Mas Gading if Dr Tiki give way and SPDP enjoy full support from all BN component parties including members of the BN Club.

Dr Jeniri said PBB will most probably retain all the seats it contested.

But for SUPP, PRS and SPDP, Dr Jeniri said their strength wouldn’t be as strong as in the 2008 election, adding that SPDP might lose Baram and Saratok, PRS may lose in Hulu Rajang and Lubok Antu while SUPP may lose two more seats.

He said the present trend of Chinese voters is not favouring BN and it was evident in 2011 state election which saw 20 percent drop in Chinese support for BN and 7.6 percent in non-muslim area.

Meanwhile PBB deputy information chief Datuk Peter Minos also strongly believed that BN will still win the general election.

He said of the four state BN component parties PBB will win all the seats it contested.

“PBB is solid as it is united and disciplined and will do well. Voters and people respect unity in a party and tend to go for it, as unity reflects good leadership, ability, responsibility and effectiveness.

“If SUPP and SPDP can somehow regroup their members they have chances but whether it can be done is yet to be seen.

“Hopefully they can win as many seats as possible. As for PRS it has to do hard battle against their old gang now in SWP,” said Minos.

Minos said in some seats in SUPP, SPDP and PRS, good candidates and hard campaigning will help and there is no room for complacency.

“Pakatan will throw in everything for sure and will use any issue against BN. They always say they have nothing to lose but all to gain. That why BN must fight as a team and never allow any internal division for Pakatan to exploit.

“A truly united BN is something Pakatan fears most. Unity within and between BN parties is a must,” he added. 

Minos said this round it will be tougher than 2008 election as Pakatan has experience in looking after four states and  probably has more resources for campaigning.

“But Pakatan is disadvantaged with too many leaders with big egos and divided over many issues like the hudud law and  who to be Prime Minister from among them if victorious. So Pakatan is not all angels as they like to tell us,” Minos said.

He said the issues will be national, state, local and even personal, adding that parties and candidates must know how to articulate or counter them.

“Pakatan will definitely create issues that put BN in bad light and BN has got to rebut or counter. If not, some voters can get hoodwinked.

“Now is the time for BN to know the positive issues and the negative ones harp by Pakatan.

“The young voters are a worry. They can swing anywhere. BN just got to win them, by actions and persuasions. Luckily BN has Najib who really works very hard, moving non-stop and winning people's hearts.

“We hope Umno will do better than in 2008 General election. With Najib around it should win over some wayward ones and indications are that many are coming back. But Pakatan is not making life easy for Umno as they know that a broken Umno is their best bet to Putrajaya,” he said.

Fortunately, he said the Prime Minister frustrates Pakatan's chances.

He said MCA is trying hard but urban voters are a difficult lot, adding that its president Datuk Seri Chua Choi Lek has done his best to win the Chinese votes.

“MIC will have a tough time as the Indians are divided over too many parties and loyalties while Gerakan and PPP seem lost,” he said.

Sabah BN he said as usual squabbling and the opposition is having a fun time.

“Najib has repaired some damages and I am told of 'defections' coming up in Sabah and overall I am confident BN will retain in Putrajaya. Pakatan may or may not get more states, depending on issues raised up and how united is BN.

“One thing is for sure nobody is giving any quarters and it will be a 'mother' of all elections in Malaysia,” he concluded.